Superstar Los Angeles Angels player Shohei Ohtani constantly appears to add to his mystique. Since the mound was shifted to its present location in 1893, Ohtani was the first MLB player to finish in the top 15 in both home runs hit and strikeouts pitched last season. He launched his big league-leading 40th home run on Thursday night, and his equally stellar pitching career saw him strike out 600 times. He has thrown out the fourth-most strikeouts in the majors this season.

Ohtani is an unrivaled two-way performer in modern baseball, excelling as both a fearsome slugger and a pitching ace. With free agency approaching at the end of this season, many believe he will break the $500 million mark when he enters the market this winter.

According to Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, “He’s such a unicorn that I don’t know if he’s going to have anybody compared to him in all of baseball history,” in March. He really is a unicorn. He will undoubtedly receive the highest contract ever, in my opinion. At this time, I believe that is a done deal.

Salvador Perez, the catcher for the Kansas City Royals, projected last month that Ohtani will receive “$600 million for 10 years.” No American sports team has ever given a player a full guarantee worth even $500 million.

Naturally, the Angels decided against trading Ohtani at the trade deadline this month in favor of trying to improve his prospects of making his postseason debut. What happens next is a gamble, if going all-in to chase the playoffs this season was.

Many concur with Kershaw and Perez that Ohtani’s upcoming deal will surpass that of Mike Trout, whose 12-year, $426.5 million contract extension is still the largest in MLB annals. According to one model, Ohtani may be worth more than $500 million, while Jonathan Lansner, a business columnist for the Orange County Register, estimated that Ohtani could be worth more than $700 million. Both numbers appear to be incredibly high for a player who just turned 29, which usually marks the beginning of a player’s decline.

Wins above replacement, a single-value metric that measures a player’s overall performance by integrating offense, defense, and base running, indicates that hitters often begin peaking at age 25. This period of peak performance may endure for a few years before a gradual drop usually starts. Pitchers reach a comparable peak, but the drop becomes more severe after age 28. Ohtani is expected to produce 3.1 wins above replacement as a pitcher and 7.0 wins above replacement as a hitter this season. His previous records as a pitcher were 5.6 in 2022 and 5.0 as a hitter in 2021.

MLB star hitters’ aging curve

Since 1901, the average wins above replacement for all MLB hitters with at least one season of 5+ fWAR

Ohtani would likely need to generate at least 60 total wins over replacement over a 10-year span in order to perform at a level deserving of $500 million or more, at least in wins above replacement. The most any hitter has increased from the ages of 29 to 38 since 2006, when MLB instituted drug testing, is 47.5 wins above replacement (Adrian Beltre). As a pitcher in that age range, Max Scherzer added 50.8 wins above replacement (and counting), but he also won back-to-back Cy Young honors at years 31 and 32. Can Ohtani continue to perform at that level as a pitcher and hitter as he gets older? And is that worth assuming a risk of $500 million?

Of course, these evaluations only take Ohtani’s performance on the field into account and do not account any additional advantages gained from having a superstar like Ohtani on the team, like as merchandise sales, ticket sales, player recruiting, or other advantages.

They also fail to consider the possibility of injury, which was brought up again this week when Ohtani had to leave a start early due to finger cramping. Like other 29-year-old baseball veterans, Ohtani has suffered from a number of ailments over the years. In 2018, he underwent Tommy John surgery to repair his torn ulnar collateral ligament, which prevented him from pitching the whole 2019 season.

Since 1974, around one in seven MLB pitchers who required Tommy John surgery have also undergone a second treatment, often about five years later. This would lessen Ohtani’s impact, according to data compiled by baseball analyst Jon Roegele. A significant portion of players who require a second Tommy John surgery—more than half (58%)—do not return to play in the major leagues. As a full-time pitcher and hitter, Ohtani exposes himself to significantly more injury risks than the majority of players. Not that Ohtani will be physically constrained, but with Tommy John operations on the upswing, it is important to consider that possibility when calculating any long-term contracts.